Objective To analyze the trends and changes in the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in China from 1990 to 2021.

Methods Data related to the burden of CKD in China from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study public database were downloaded. Descriptive analyses were conducted using indicators such as age-standardized incidence rates, mortality rates, years of life lost (YLL) rates, years lived with disability (YLD) rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in CKD. The Nordpred model was used to predict the standardized mortality rates, prevalence rates, and incidence rates of CKD in China over the next 20 years.

Results The age-standardized incidence rate of CKD in China increased from 147.29 per 100, 000 in 1990 to 163.74 per 100, 000 in 2021, while the age-standardized prevalence rates, mortality rates, YLL rates, YLD rates, and DALY rates all exhibited downward trends. The incidence and prevalence of CKD were higher in Chinese women than in men, while mortality rates and DALY rates were lower in women than in men. The burden of CKD increased with age. It is estimated that by 2045, the incidence and prevalence of CKD in China will continue to rise, but the standardized mortality rate and standardized prevalence rate will decline.

Conclusion Based on the current status and trends in the burden of CKD in China, implementing precise health management for different populations can help reduce the burden of CKD in China.