子痫前期合并肾损害的影响因素分析及预测模型构建

Risk factors of preeclampsia complicated with renal impairment and construction of prediction model

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析子痫前期(PE)合并肾损害的影响因素并构建预测模型。
    方法 回顾性收集2020年1月—2023年1月在本院产检的300例PE患者的临床资料,采用随机数字表法以2∶1的比例将其分为建模集200例和验证集100例。所有患者随访至分娩后3个月,将建模集发生肾损害的患者纳入发生组,其余纳入未发生组。比较建模集与验证集、建模集发生组与未发生组的临床资料。采用Logistic回归模型分析PE发生肾损害的影响因素,并构建预测模型。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校正曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型价值。
    结果 建模集与验证集临床资料比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。随访完成后, 300例PE患者发生肾损害75例(25.00%), 其中验证集24例(24.00%), 建模集51例(25.50%)。将建模集中发生肾损害的51例患者纳入发生组,其余149例纳入未发生组。与未发生组比较,发生组年龄较大, HELLP综合征、早发型PE、PE有严重表现构成比,以及收缩压、舒张压、肾叶间动脉阻力指数(RI)、肾叶间动脉搏动指数(PI)升高,肾叶间动脉收缩期峰值流速(PSV)、肾叶间动脉舒张末期流速(EDV)、血小板(PLT)降低,差异均有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。Logistic回归模型分析
    结果 显示,年龄、HELLP综合征、早发型PE、PE有严重表现、肾叶间动脉RI是PE发生肾损害的影响因素(P < 0.05)。基于建模集Logistic回归分析结果建立PE发生肾损害的预测模型,该模型预测建模集、验证集肾损害的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.949(95%CI: 0.917~0.971)、0.944(95%CI: 0.900~0.972)。绘制建模集、验证集校正曲线,经Hosmer-Lemeshow检验,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。Bootstrap法内部验证结果显示,建模集、验证集的一致性指数分别为0.913(95%CI: 0.828~0.998)、0.907(95%CI: 0.840~0.974)。根据DCA评估预测模型的临床净收益,建模集、验证集分别在风险阈值0.13~0.92、0.18~0.87时获取临床净收益。
    结论 PE发生肾损害的影响因素包括年龄、HELLP综合征、早发型PE、PE有严重表现、肾叶间动脉RI, 据此建立的预测模型在预测PE发生肾损害中表现出良好的性能,可为临床评估PE肾损害风险提供依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the influencing factors of preeclampsia (PE) complicated with renal impairment and construct a prediction model.
    Methods The clinical materials of 300 PE patients with antenatal examination in the hospital from January 2020 to January 2023 were retrospectively collected and divided into modeling set of 200 cases and validation set of 100 cases by a random number table in a ratio of 2 to 1. All the patients were followed up for 3 months after delivery. Patients in the modeling set with renal impairment were included in occurrence group, and the rest were included in non-occurrence group. Clinical materials between the modeling set and the validation set as well as between the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group within the modeling set were compared. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the influencing factors of renal impairment in PE and construct a prediction model. The model performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
    Results There was no significant difference in clinical data between the modeling set and validation set (P>0.05). After completion of follow-up for 300 PE patients, renal impairment occurred in 75 cases (25.00%), including 24 cases (24.00%) in the validation set and 51 cases (25.50%) in the modeling set. A total of 51 patients with renal impairment in the modeling set were included in the occurrence group, and the remaining 149 patients were included in the non-occurrence group. Compared with the non-occurrence group, the occurrence group had significant older age, higher proportions of HELLP syndrome, early-onset PE and severe manifestations of PE, increased systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, resistance index (RI) and pulsatility index (PI) of renal interlobar artery as well as decreased peak systolic velocity (PSV) and end-diastolic velocity (EDV) of renal interlobar artery and platelet (PLT) (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that age, HELLP syndrome, early-onset of PE, severe manifestations of PE, and RI of renal interlobar artery were influencing factors of renal impairment in PE (P < 0.05). A prediction model for renal impairment in PE was established based on the results of Logistic regression analysis in the modeling set. The area under the curve (AUC) of this model for predicting renal impairment was 0.949 (95%CI, 0.917 to 0.971) in the modeling set and 0.944 (95%CI, 0.900 to 0.972) in the validation set. Calibration curves for the modeling set and validation set were plotted, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant differences (P>0.05). Internal validation by the Bootstrap method showed consistency index was 0.913 (95%CI, 0.828 to 0.998) for the modeling set and 0.907 (95%CI, 0.840 to 0.974) for the validation set. According to DCA, the clinical net benefit of the prediction model was obtained at risk thresholds of 0.13 to 0.92 for the modeling set and 0.18 to 0.87 for the validation set.
    Conclusion The influencing factors of renal impairment in PE include age, HELLP syndrome, early-onset of PE, severe manifestations of PE, and RI of renal interlobar artery. The prediction model established based on these factors demonstrates good performance in predicting renal impairment in PE, providing evidences for clinical assessment of renal impairment risk in PE.

     

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