基于决策树的血液透析患者透析失衡综合征风险预测模型的构建

Development of a risk prediction model for dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients based on decision tree algorithm

  • 摘要:
    目的 应用卡方自动交互检测(CHAID)决策树算法构建血液透析患者透析失衡综合征的风险预测模型。
    方法 选取200例血液透析患者作为研究对象, 将血液透析后发生透析失衡综合征的患者纳入发生组,未发生透析失衡综合征的患者纳入未发生组。收集并分析患者的临床资料,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析法筛选血液透析患者发生透析失衡综合征的独立影响因素,基于独立影响因素和决策树模型构建血液透析患者发生透析失衡综合征的风险预测模型。
    结果 200例血液透析患者中,发生透析失衡综合征者40例,未发生透析失衡综合征者160例。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、尿素氮是血液透析患者发生透析失衡综合征的独立危险因素(OR > 1, P < 0.05), 白蛋白是血液透析患者发生透析失衡综合征的独立保护因素(OR < 1, P < 0.05)。决策树模型显示,位于第1层的年龄是透析失衡综合征最重要的影响因素(样本分为3个亚群,年龄>56.5岁患者透析失衡综合征发生率为95.0%, 远高于年龄≤56.5岁患者的发生率),位于第2层的白蛋白、尿素氮分别是年龄>55.5~56.5岁、年龄>56.5岁的影响因素。
    结论 分析透析失衡综合征的独立影响因素,并基于决策树构建风险预测模型,可预测血液透析患者发生透析失衡综合征的概率。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To establish a risk prediction model for dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients using the Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) decision tree algorithm.
    Methods A total of 200 hemodialysis patients were enrolled as study subjects. Patients who developed dialysis disequilibrium syndrome after hemodialysis were included in occurrence group, while those who did not develop dialysis disequilibrium syndrome were included in non-occurrence group. Clinical data were collected and analyzed, and univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to screen independent influencing factors of dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients. Based on these independent factors and the decision tree model, a risk prediction model for dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients was constructed.
    Results Among 200 hemodialysis patients, 40 developed dialysis disequilibrium syndrome, while 160 did not. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age and urea nitrogen were independent risk factors for dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients (OR > 1, P < 0.05), while albumin was an independent protective factor against DDS (OR < 1, P < 0.05). The decision tree model showed that age, located at the first level, was a most important influencing factor for dialysis disequilibrium syndrome (the sample was divided into three subgroups, with an incidence rate of 95.0% in patients older than 56.5 years, which was significantly higher than that in patients aged ≤56.5 years). Albumin and urea nitrogen were influencing factors for patients aged > 55.5 to 56.5 and > 56.5 years, respectively, located at the second level.
    Conclusion Analyzing the independent influencing factors of dialysis disequilibrium syndrome and risk prediction model constructed based on the decision tree algorithm can predict the probability of dialysis disequilibrium syndrome in hemodialysis patients.

     

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