高级检索

凝血酶原国际标准化比值/白蛋白、终末期肝病模型联合血清钠和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇联合检测对慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后的预测价值

Predictive value of combined detection of prothrombin time-international normalized ratio-to-albumin ratio, model for end-stage liver disease-Na and high-density lipoproteincholesterol in prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨凝血酶原国际标准化比值/白蛋白(PTAR)、终末期肝病模型联合血清钠(MELD-Na)和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)联合检测对慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)患者预后的预测价值。
    方法 回顾性分析154例ACLF患者的临床资料，根据确诊第90天的预后情况分为生存组(95例)和死亡组(59例)。比较2组患者入院时的临床基线指标。分析PTAR、HDL-C、MELD-Na之间的相关性。分析ACLF患者预后的影响因素。绘制PTAR、HDL-C、MELD-Na单项及联合预测(PTAR+MELD-Na+ HDL-C)模型的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线，评估其对ACLF患者预后的预测效能。根据联合模型的截断值(0.530), 将患者分为A组(< 0.530, n=47)和B组(≥0.530, n=107)。采用Kaplan-Meier曲线分析比较2组生存率。
    结果 2组患者年龄、总胆红素(TBil)、白蛋白(ALB)、血肌酐(Cr)、凝血酶原时间(PT)、血清钠(Na+)、白细胞(WBC)、血小板(PLT)、PTAR、HDL-C、MELD-Na比较, 差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。PTAR与MELD-Na呈正相关(r=0.407, P < 0.001); PTAR、MELD-Na与HDL-C呈负相关(r=-0.316、-0303, P < 0.001)。年龄、TBil、PT、PTAR、MELD-Na是ACLF患者预后的独立影响因素(P < 0.05), HDL-C是ACLF患者预后的有效预测因子。PTAR、HDL-C、MELD-Na的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.722、0.717、0.738; 联合预测模型的AUC为0.801(95%CI: 0.722~0.881, P < 0.001), 敏感度为0.627, 特异度为0.916, 约登指数为0.543, 截断值为0.530。Kaplan-Meier曲线分析显示, A组患者累计生存率高于B组，差异有统计学意义(P < 0.001)。
    结论 PTAR、HDL-C、MELD-Na均是ACLF患者近期预后的独立影响因素，上述三者联合预测模型对ACLF患者预后的预测价值较好。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the predictive value of combined detection of prothrombin time-international normalized ratio-to-albumin ratio(PTAR), model for end-stage liver disease-Na (MELD-Na) and high-density lipoproteincholesterol(HDL-C) in prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).
    Methods The clinical data of 154 patients with ACLF were retrospectively analyzed and divided into survival group (95 cases) and death group (59 cases) according to the prognosis on the 90th day after diagnosis. The clinical baseline indexes at admission were compared between the two groups. The correlations among PTAR, HDL-C and MELD-Na were analyzed. The prognostic factors of ACLF patients were analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of PTAR, HDL-C, MELD-Na and their combination prediction(PTAR+MELD-Na+HDL-C) models were drawn to evaluate their prognostic efficacy in ACLF patients. According to the truncation value (0.530) of the combined model, patients were divided into group A (< 0.530, n=47) and group B (≥0.530, n=107). The survival rates of the two groups were compared by Kaplan-Meier curve analysis.
    Results There were significant differences in age, total bilirubin (TBil), albumin (ALB), creatinine (Cr), prothrombin time (PT), serum sodium (Na+), white blood cell (WBC), platelet (PLT), PTAR, HDL-C and MELD-Na between two groups (P < 0.05). PTAR was positively correlated with MELD-Na (r=0.407, P < 0.001); PTAR and MELD-Na were negatively correlated with HDL-C (r=-0.316, -0303, P < 0.001). Age, TBil, PT, PTAR and MELD-Na were independent influencing factors for the prognosis of ACLF patients (P < 0.05), and HDL-C was an effective predictor of the prognosis of ACLF patients. The area under curves (AUC) of PTAR, HDL-C and MELD-Na were 0.722, 0.717 and 0.738, respectively; the AUC of the combined prediction model was 0.801(95%CI, 0.722 to 0.881, P < 0.001), the sensitivity was 0.627, the specificity was 0.916, the Jorden index was 0.543, and the cutoff value was 0.530. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate in the group A was significantly higher than that in the group B (P < 0.001).
    Conclusion PTAR, HDL-C and MELD-Na are all independent influencing factors for the short-term prognosis of ACLF patients, and the combined prediction model of the above three factors has a good prognostic value for ACLF patients.

     

    • HTML全文
    • 参考文献(31)
    • 相关文章
    • 施引文献
  • 资源附件(0)

/

返回文章
返回