普通外科术后下肢深静脉血栓形成预测模型的建立

Establishment of prediction model of deep venous thrombosis formation of lower extremity after general surgery

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨血栓弹力图(TEG)与常规凝血指标预测普通外科术后下肢深静脉血栓(DVT)形成的价值,并建立预测模型。
    方法 选取2018年1月—2021年1月普通外科手术患者272例为研究对象,根据术后多普勒超声结果将其分为DVT组249例与非DVT组23例。比较2组凝血酶原时间(PT)、活化部分凝血酶原时间(APTT)、凝血酶时间(TT)、纤维蛋白原(Fib)、D-二聚体以及凝血反应时间(R)、血液凝固时间(K)、凝固角(α角)、血栓最大振幅(MA)。筛选血栓相关因素,采用Logistic回归分析建立预测模型。
    结果 DVT组患者年龄大于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05); DVT组手术时间长于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。DVT组术前D-二聚体水平高于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05); DVT组术前PT、APTT、TT短于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。DVT组术前K、α角、MA长于或大于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05); DVT组术前R短于非DVT组,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。术前α角、MA、K、D-二聚体、PT对DVT发生具有中等预测价值曲线下面积(AUC)为0.7~0.9。将年龄、手术时间、PT、APTT、TT、D-二聚体、R、α角(K因与α角含义类似而未纳入)、MA共9个术前变量纳入二元Logistic回归分析,获得手术后血栓的预测模型。该模型受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的AUC为0.964(95%CI: 0.934~0.983, P < 0.05)。当约登指数最大时,其所对应的最佳分界值(cut-off值)为0.174, 灵敏度为91.30%, 特异度为95.18%。
    结论 综合年龄、手术时间、PT、APTT、TT、D-二聚体以及TEG中R、α角、MA共9个术前变量建立的预测模型能较好地筛查出DVT高危患者。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the value of thrombelastography (TEG) and conventional coagulation indexes in predicting the formation of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of lower extremities after general surgery, and to establish a prediction model.
    Methods A total of 272 patients undergoing general surgery from January 2018 to January 2021 were selected as research objects. According to the postoperative Doppler ultrasound results, they were divided into DVT group (249 cases) and non-DVT group (23 cases). The prothrombin time (PT), activated partial prothrombin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), fibrinogen (Fib), D-dimer, coagulation reaction time (R), blood clotting time (K), α-angle and maximum amplitude (MA) were compared between the two groups. The factors related to thrombosis were screened, and Logistic regression analysis was used to establish a prediction model.
    Results The age of patients in the DVT group was significantly higher than that in the non-DVT group (P < 0.05); the operation time of the DVT group was significantly longer than that of the non-DVT group (P < 0.05). The level of D-dimer in the DVT group was significantly higher than that in the non-DVT group (P < 0.05); the preoperative PT, APTT and TT of the DVT group were significantly shorter than those of the non-DVT group (P < 0.05). The preoperative K, α-angle and MA of the DVT group were significantly longer or greater than those of the non-DVT group (P < 0.05); the preoperative R of the DVT group was significantly shorter than that of the non-DVT group (P < 0.05). Preoperative α-angle, MA, K, D-dimer and PT had moderate predictive value for DVTarea under the curve (AUC) was 0.7 to 0.9. Nine preoperative variables including age, operation time, PT, APTT, TT, D-dimer, R, α-angle (K was not included because of the similar meaning of with α-angle) and MA were included in binary Logistic regression analysis to obtain the prediction model of postoperative thrombosis. The AUC of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was 0.964 (95%CI, 0.934 to 0.983, P < 0.05). When the Youden index was the maximum, the corresponding optimal cut-off value was 0.174, the sensitivity was 91.30%, and the specificity was 95.18%.
    Conclusion The prediction model based on 9 preoperative variables including age, operation time, PT, APTT, TT, D-dimer as well as R, α-angle and MA in TEG can better screen high-risk patients with DVT.

     

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