Objective  To analyze the value of plasma volume (PV) in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with chronic systolic heart failure (SHF).

  Methods  A total of 160 patients with chronic SHFleft ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% were selected. According to the admission PV(100-hematocrit(%)/hemoglobin(g/L)level, 52 patients were in Q1 group (< 3.41), 55 patients were in Q2 group (≥3.41~ < 4.38) and 53 patients were in Q3 group (≥4.38). All cause deaths were recorded during follow-up.

  Results  Age, N-terminal B-type brain natriuretic peptide precursor (NT-proBNP) level, creatinine level and hematocrit of patients in the group Q1, group Q2 and group Q3 showed an increasing trend, while systolic and diastolic blood pressure and hemoglobin level showed a decreasing trend, and the differences between groups were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Up to April 2021, a total of 45 cases (28.1%) had all-cause death, including 7 cases (13.5%) in group Q1, 13 cases (23.6%) in group Q2 and 25 cases (47.2%) in group Q3. The all-cause mortality showed a gradual increase trend, and the differences between groups were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Increased PV and In (NT-proBNP) were independent risk factors for all-cause death (P < 0.05). The increase of PV and ln (NT-proBNP) were the independent risk factor to all-cause death (P < 0.05). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC) of PV, ln (NT-proBNP) and combined diagnosis for all-cause death were 0.753, 0.692 and 0.841 (P < 0.05), respectively.

  Conclusion  The increase of PV in patients with chronic SHF has important application value in predicting short-term all-cause death, and it is expected to be an important index to guide the early clinical evaluation of patients' prognosis.