Objective  To explore the serological predictors of poor prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure(CHF).

  Methods  A total of 145 newly diagnosed patients with CHF were recruited as group A, and 138 healthy volunteers were recruited as group B. Serum levels of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and lonely G protein coupled receptor ligand-12 (Apelin-12) in both groups were detected; the predictive value of serum sST2, GDF-15 and Apelin-12 levels alone and their combination for poor prognosis in the group A was analyzed.

  Results  Two cases were lost during follow-up in the group A. The serum levels of sST2 and GDF-15 in the group A were significantly higher, and the level of Apelin-12 was significantly lower than that in the group B (P < 0.05). The incidence of poor prognosis in the group A was 44.06%, the levels of sST2 and GDF-15 in patients with poor prognosis were significantly higher than those in patients with good prognosis, and the level of Apelin-12 was significantly lower than those in patients with good prognosis (P < 0.05). Age, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, increased level of N-terminal prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), sST2, GDF-15 and decreased level of Apelin-12 were the influencing factors of poor prognosis in the group A. The sensitivity of sST2, GDF-15 and APelin-12 levels combined to predict poor prognosis of CHF patients was significantly higher than those of single prediction (P < 0.01), and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was significantly higher than that of single prediction (P < 0.05).

  Conclusion  The serum levels of sST2 and GDF-15 are higher, and the serum levels of Apelin-12 is lower in patients with CHF. The above serum indexes, age and complications are related to the prognosis of patients, and the combination of these three factors a better efficacy in predicting poor prognosis of patients.